The crazy race in the third congressional district
Luige del Puerto in the Arizona Capitol Times (in a story reprinted on the ABC 15 site) takes a look at the fallout from Rep. John Shadegg’s retirement:
Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd shocked everyone when his campaign said it had raised a whopping $750,000 – more than any other candidate in the race has reported so far. More than $250,000 was donated during the second quarter, a very healthy fundraising figure that could pose some problems this fall for whoever emerges from the Republican primary on Aug. 24.
Meanwhile, over on the GOP side?
[T]he Republican contest is shaping up as a true scramble – campaign managers are trying to determine which candidate they need to target, and many candidates are trying to appeal to the same voting bloc, whether defined by geography or ideology.
Political observers have categorized GOP candidates into two tiers, but none of the candidates can be counted out. Anyone could break out from the pack, and it could take as little as 20 percent of the vote to win.
6:27 AM
John Shadegg retiring
Dan Nowicki reports in the AZ Republic:
“While representing the people of Arizona in the House was one of my goals in life, it is not the only one,” Shadegg said in a written statement. “After 16 years it is time for me to take my life in a new direction and to pursue my commitment to fight for freedom in a different venue.”
Shadegg and national Republicans immediately signaled that they believe they can continue to hold Shadegg’s 3rd Congressional District, which leans toward the GOP. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., carried the Phoenix-based district over President Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race.
McCain did carry it, by about 56.5 percent, about two and a half points better than Shadegg. The spread would seem to represent McCain’s Favorite Son vote. Shadegg’s opponent, Bob Lord, had some national Democratic money support, particularly late in the race, but he was palpably inexperienced and something less than a known quantity.
Assuming the Democrats can find a serious candidate, that and the ineluctable bluing of the state would seem to put at least another five percentage points into play, making the seat at the very least competitive. Arguing against it is the national mood, which bears some signs of trending against the Democrats, particularly since the last jobs figures weren’t an improvement.
Nowicki:
So far one Democrat, Jon Hulburd, had announced his intention to challenge Shadegg. A Democratic source tells AZ/DC that Hulburd raised $315,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009. News that Shadegg is not running no doubt will launch a feeding frenzy among possible Republican candidates.
Shadegg’s father, the late Stephen Shadegg, was a former Arizona Republican Party chairman and a longtime confidant and campaign strategist of the late Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz.
Hulburd’s web site is here. Not much about him. The Swing State Project calls him a “lawyer, businessman, would-be-novelist, and former Gary Hart staffer.”
7:00 AM
Dumb things John Shadegg says
This is from a few days ago:
Speaking on the House floor Monday night, Republican Rep. John Shadegg wondered whether bringing the professed mastermind of the 2001 attacks to face trial in Manhattan would endanger everyone from the mayor’s daughter to the “judge’s wife.”
“Well mayor, how are you going to feel when it is your daughter that is kidnapped at school by a terrorist?” Shadegg said.
The next day, Shadegg was reported to have proffered this non-apology apology:
Shadegg told The Associated Press on Tuesday that he was sorry.
“I apologize for the insensitivity of my remarks with respect to the mayor or his family, however I think it is important to note that this decision involves potential risk to innocent people,” Shadegg said.
I was watching Team America: World Police again the other night, and it reminded me now much of the recent dialog about the KSM trial in Manhattan was reminiscent of the talk in the film; Matt Stone and Trey Parker capture perfectly the bland way politicians invoked the words “terrorist” or “weapon of mass destruction” in the years after 9/11.
It all seems a little dated, now, but of course guys like Shadegg like living in that particular past. They get off talking like a backwoods preacher scaring kids with stories of a bogeyman in the forest.
I just don’t know why he felt he had to apologize to the mayor of New York; the offense of his comments wasn’t to Michael Bloomberg but rather to anyone with a brain.
Shadegg’s not a creep because of his political views; he’s a creep because he thinks his constituents are stupid.
12:00 AM
Who voted how in the House on health care and the unemployment extension
Arizona’s congressional delegation voted on party lines on the big health-care bill in the House; less noticed was another important vote over the weekend, this one on extending unemployment benefits.
Dan Nowicki in the Republic noticed it:
Three Arizona Republicans on Thursday made up 25 percent of the House opposition to the bill to extend unemployment benefits to jobless Americans.
The House voted 403-12 to pass the legislation, which on Wednesday had won 98-0 Senate approval. Reps. Jeff Flake, Trent Franks and John Shadegg were among the 12 “no” votes.
The measure, signed Friday by President Barack Obama, would extend jobless benefits for 14 weeks across the nation and provide an additional six weeks of benefits on top of that for job-seekers in states where the unemployment rate is 8.5 percent or greater.
Emphasis added. Nowicki notes that the Democratic Party blasted Shadegg immediately after the vote—a sign that the party is targeting him next year.
As PHXated has argued before, how the Democrats view Arizona is going to be the most far-reaching political story in the state for the next three years.
If the economy takes another nose dive or even if it just remains stagnant, the Democrats will of course take a hit. But as Obama’s regular appearances here in the state testify, Arizona is on the party’s radar as a swing state in 2012. Even as a favorite son, McCain got only a bit above 53 percent of the vote last year, and the demographic shifts do not favor Republicans. The state could have eleven or twelve electoral votes after the 2010 census; a swing from red to blue would represent a big 22- or 24-vote swing for the Democrats.
Back to the unemployment vote: Note how by Republican logic, tax cuts help the economy by putting money back into the hands of people, but for some reason extending extending unemployment benefits—i.e., putting money into the hands of people—doesn’t.
A rebounding economy would take an arrow out of the GOP’s quiver; it could also make our local right-wing congresspeople vulnerable for not having helped the recovery along—and in this specific case, delivering a big “Screw you” as well to the people made most vulnerable by the downturn.
12:00 AM