The WSJ says Ann Kirkpatrick's seat is in danger

An overview in the Wall Street Journal today takes a look at Democratic House seats that might be in danger in the 2010 Congressional elections. While she’s not mentioned in the story, a pull-out graphic with the story prominently displays Ann Kirkpatrick’s northeast district, the Arizona first.

PHXated noted last week that the Cook Report and 538.com, using their own analysis, had Harry Mitchell, of the Arizona fifth, and Gabrielle Giffords, from the eighth, on their list of most vulnerable Dem districts.

Last week, Joe Biden was in town to raise money not for them but Kirkpatrick. And the EVT’s Le Templar noted as well that the district’s conservative nature means Kirkpatrick, too, may be vulnerable next year.

Can Ann Kirkpatrick be defeated in 2010?

Greg Patterson thinks so. His candidate is Rusty Bowers; his argument is that Kirkpatrick’s victory last year rested on new voters:

They’re young, idealistic Obama supporters who aren’t going to vote in 2010. Those voters aren’t coming back to the polls in a non-presidential year and they sure as heck aren’t coming back without Obama on the ticket. […] Forget about the percentage of the electorate who—like Bowers—are 4th or 5th generation LDS Arizonans. Focus on turnout. The extra 75,000 young idealistic voters who showed up to vote for Obama aren’t going to be there in 2010. In 2010, CD 1 is a Republican seat.

(Emphases added. I also deleted some rantings in the middle of that graf that detracted from his argument.)

Patterson may be right. I’d note three things. One is that the national Democratic party is going to remain focused on Arizona; it plainly smells blood here. The other, which explains the first, is that the three of the state’s eight congressional districts held by Republicans are all seeing their center of gravity pulled inward to Maricopa County, where demographic shifts, culturally and racially, long term are working against the GOP.

And finally, the elections are 14 months away. Anything can happen, of course, but a year from now it may seem plain that the economy, for one, had bottomed out ths summer. Obama has more than a year to show improvement in the lousy condition President Bush left the country, and the world, in.